Prof David Kay
Vice co-ordinator: Dr Peter Wyn-Jones
University of Aberystwyth, United Kingdom
The use of hydrological models to determine the effects of climate change on the variation in viral flux, and therefore in risk associated with viral disease comprises a novel approach to the management of water-related disease. Tools developed in previous EU Projects will be used to conduct case studies on five selected sites (in Sweden, Spain, Hungary, Greece and Brazil) vulnerable to climate change (principally rainfall events), and the empirical baseline data accrued will be used in mathematical models constructed to estimate changes in exposure under defined conditions.
Exposure levels will then be used to estimate risk of disease associated with such changes. Tools will include novel methods for processing of sewage, effluent and water samples, for quantitative detection of the target viruses, and for the determination of the source (human or animal) of viral pollution.
Models will be adapted from existing epidemiological models for viral disease in the community, or will be generated de novo as required. Bacterial faecal indicator analysis will permit the determination of relationships between virus levels and water quality standards, and also between changes in virus concentration in water and risk to public health activities, such as bathing in polluted water or consumption of shellfish